Weekly Macro Minute

Millard Robbins authored this issue’s devotional. He served the Lord for more than 47 years.

A central theme in the Bible is God’s desire for mankind’s redemption. God’s redemption for mankind is rooted in his intense love and desire for humanity to be reconciled, forgiven and restored to fellowship with him.

The Old Testament contains numerous prophecies about the Messiah, detailing his miraculous birth (Isaiah 7:14), his birthplace (Micah 5:2), his role as a suffering servant (Isaiah 53), his crucifixion (Psalm 22:16) and his resurrection (Psalm 16:10).

Genesis 3:15 is known as the protoevangelium (from the Greek proto, meaning “first,” and evangelion, meaning “good news”), which translates to “the first Gospel.” In Genesis 3:15, God promises a future Savior who will crush the serpent (Satan). This verse foretells a conflict between humanity and evil, culminating in the “seed of the woman” defeating Satan despite suffering a wound (the crucifixion). The “seed of the woman” refers to Jesus.

The promise continues in Genesis 22:18 (KJV), “And in thy seed shall all the nations of the earth be blessed because thou hast obeyed my voice.”

This refers to Abraham’s obedience and points to Jesus as the promised seed. In 2 Samuel 7:12 (KJV), God relayed a message to David through Nathan, the prophet and trusted court advisor, “…I will set up thy seed after thee, which shall proceed out of thy bowels, and I will establish His Kingdom.”

Matthew 1:1 (KJV) confirms this lineage, “The book of the generation of Jesus Christ, the son of David, the son of Abraham.”

Paul writes in Galatians 3:16 (KJV), “Now to Abraham and his seed were the promises made. He saith not, and to seeds, as of many; but as of one, and to thy seed, which is Christ.” Then in Galatians 3:29 (KJV), “And if ye be Christ’s, then are ye Abraham’s seed, and heirs according to the promise.”

Genesis 3:15 promises that while the serpent will bruise the Messiah’s heel, the Messiah will bruise the serpent’s head, representing ultimate victory over sin.

How does understanding God’s plan of redemption from Genesis to Christ deepen your gratitude for His love and promises?

Equities pull back as leadership broadens

• U.S. equities retreated as inflation data, AI-related disruption concerns and tariff uncertainty weighed on sentiment.
• The S&P 500^® fell 0.4%, but market participation improved, with the equal-weight S&P 500^® rising 0.4% and outperforming the cap-weighted index by more than 6% year‑to‑date.

Buybacks support market resilience

• February saw $233.3 billion in share‑repurchase authorizations across more than 200 companies.
• Buyback activity helped cushion broader declines, with dividend‑oriented and lower‑valuation sectors outperforming.
• Information Technology and Financials lagged amid profit‑taking, AI capital‑intensity concern and private credit exposure.

Small caps remain relatively strong

• Small-cap stocks held up better than large caps, extending the early‑2026 rotation away from mega-cap growth.
• The Russell 2000^® is up 6.2% year‑to‑date.

Treasury yields decline as risk appetite fades

• Treasuries rallied, pushing yields lower across the curve.
• The 10-year yield fell to approximately 3.96%, the lowest level in over four months; the 2-year declined to approximately 3.39%.

Commodities advance

• Gold rose 3.4% for the week, trading near recent record levels.
• WTI crude gained about 1.1%, supported by supply considerations and geopolitical risk.

Europe reaches new highs

• Strong earnings and diversification away from U.S. technology supported gains, even as geopolitical and tariff risks persisted.

Japan rallies on policy optimism

• Japanese equities advanced more than 3% as optimism around fiscal and monetary policy remained intact.
• The yen weakened modestly against the U.S. dollar amid expectations for a cautious normalization path.

China rebounds post-holiday

• Chinese markets rose following the Lunar New Year break.
• Policy support tied to upcoming “Two Sessions” meetings aided sentiment, though consumer‑demand durability remains in focus.

Geopolitical risks intensify

• U.S.–Iran tensions escalated over the weekend following confirmation of major U.S. combat operations inside Iran.
• Market impact will depend on the scope, duration and potential escalation of hostilities.

Producer inflation surprises to the upside

• Headline PPI rose 0.5% month‑over‑month in January; core PPI (ex. food and energy) jumped 0.8%, the largest increase since July 2025.
• Annual PPI inflation reached 2.9%, above consensus expectations and the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

Consumer confidence remains subdued

• Confidence improved modestly but stayed near the lower end of its five-year range.
• Only 28% of respondents reported jobs are plentiful, while roughly 20% said jobs are hard to get.

Factory orders decline

• New orders for U.S. manufactured goods fell 0.7% in December after a strong November gain.
• The decline was led by a sharp drop in commercial aircraft orders.