Weekly Macro Minute

Bill Spencer authored this issue’s devotional. He served the Lord alongside his wife, Shirley, for 20 years.

Consider the story we have in Mathew 14·22-33. The miracle that happened on the Sea of Galilee long ago has lessons for the Christian church and for the Christian individual today.

The events that night take their significance for us from the experience of Simon Peter and his encounter with his Lord, and I want to share three thoughts with you: faith’s vision, faith’s venture and faith’s victory.

First, we have what I have called — faith’s vision. Two things occupied the mind of Simon Peter that dark night. Consider the severity of the storm, of which he was only too conscious: “the boat was now in the midst of the sea, tossed with waves, for the wind was contrary”; they were “toiling in rowing.” Was there ever such a time of storm and stress as now? Clouds of darkness seem to fill the skies, and there is an icy chill of fear in the wind. Moral standards are reaching a new low. Wickedness and evil seem rampant. The storm seems at its height. The life of the nations is as storm-tossed as the waters of the Galilean lake that dark night.

But faith’s vision for Simon Peter held more than this; we also find the serenity of the Savior. “Now in the fourth watch of the night, Jesus went to them, walking on the sea... the disciples saw him.” Faith’s vision sees more than the storm: It sees the Savior at the very heart of the tempest, undismayed and unafraid. If panic had already begun to seize the mind of the fishermen, then, in a staggering and amazing contrast, peace and serenity seemed to rest upon that kingly form as it moved toward them out of the night.

And so, too, are the storms that beat upon our human lives — storms of temptation, of difficulty, of sorrow. Within these, Christ moves with a mastery and control that startles and staggers the minds. The severity of the storm and the serenity of the Savior give us faith’s vision. What storms are you facing right now? How can you see our Savior in the midst of these storms?

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Across the Markets

U.S. equities surrendered some of their robust post-election gains, with the S&P 500® Index declining 2.1% for the week, as persistent inflation and a strong October retail sales report raised doubts about the pace of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Most sectors recorded losses, led by health care, materials, and technology declines. The only sectors that finished the week in positive territory were energy and financials. The Russell 2000 Index dropped sharply by 4.0%, following a surge of over 8% the previous week.

Expectations of higher long-term interest rates drove a 14-basis-point increase in the yield of the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury, which ended the week at 4.44%. Investors continued to digest the potential implications of a second Trump presidency on economic growth and inflation.

The U.S. dollar has strengthened for the seventh consecutive week, with the U.S. Dollar Index increasing 1.6%. The dollar’s strength has been partly attributed to investor expectations of dollar-positive policies, including potential domestic tax cuts and the widespread imposition of tariffs to restore U.S. manufacturing competitiveness.

European equities continued their recent decline as investors digested concerns about the potential impact of trade policies and tariffs on European economic growth and perceived hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell suggesting that the Fed can take its time in reducing interest rates.

Japanese equities declined over the week as concerns about the potential for higher tariffs under a second Trump administration dampened the outlook for Japanese companies heavily reliant on U.S. exports.

Chinese equities declined for the week as the threat of increased U.S. tariffs and the country’s ongoing deflationary spiral weighed on investor sentiment.

In the Economy

Progress on disinflation appears to have stalled, as the core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.3% in October for the third consecutive month, in line with market expectations. Used car prices rose by 2.7% for the month, while airline fares surged by 3.2%, contributing to the increase. The core CPI climbed 3.3% year-over-year, remaining well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Headline CPI, which includes all categories, rose by 0.2% for the month and 2.6% year-over-year, as declining energy prices, down 4.9% year-over-year, helped to keep it below the core measure.

Applications for U.S. unemployment benefits dropped to their lowest level since May, with initial jobless claims falling by 4,000 to 217,000 for the week ending November 9, signaling strong demand for workers following recent hurricanes and labor strikes.

U.S. retail sales rose 0.4% in October, driven by a jump in auto purchases, following an upwardly revised 0.8% gain in September. The result exceeded the consensus estimate of a 0.3% rise, suggesting a strong start to the holiday shopping season.

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