Weekly Macro Minute

Share:
GuideStone Capital Management Weekly Macro Minute

GuideStone® was originally established in 1918 to provide financial support and assistance for retired pastors and widows. Today, we continue to carry out that mission through the ministry of Mission:Dignity®. Here’s an encouraging devotional from one of our recipients:

Icon of a Bible
Icon of a BibleMiracles

Matthew 6:8 (NKJV)

Jane Strickland authored this issue’s devotional. She served the Lord alongside her late husband, GW, for more than 30 years.

During my senior year of high school, I realized I was falling in love with my good friend, Walton, the boy next door. Soon, we were both at Baylor University, planning to marry after graduation. Uncle Sam had other plans.

When the Korean War began, the draft loomed. My beloved joined the Air Force and was shipped out the next morning. I was in shock. As I went to classes and work, it felt like part of me was missing.

I completed that school year, and we married in May. I needed three more semesters to graduate and planned to finish during his 18-month tour overseas. Alas, as Robert Burns so wisely said, “The best laid plans of mice and men go oft astray.” After ten months of marriage, God blessed us with a pair of husky twin boys. The next year and a half brought a very different but wonderful education. Walton returned from Japan the day before the twins’ second birthday.

While overseas, Walton felt called to ministry and foreign missions. This meant changing his major and starting over, followed by three years of seminary. Undaunted, he worked full-time at an aircraft factory during the second shift while taking a full course load. I worked full-time as wife, mom and homemaker. After six difficult years, Walton was ready for his final year of seminary. Each time we faced a roadblock, God miraculously opened a door at the perfect moment. We rejoiced in his loving provision, convinced he never gives a job without equipping us to do it.

Then, the aircraft contract ended, and Walton was laid off. No jobs were available that would support our family and allow him to attend school. We prayed, believing God hadn’t brought us this far to quit. On registration day, Walton enrolled in classes but lacked tuition. Over peanut butter sandwiches, the mail arrived with a card from a fine lady I’d met years earlier. Inside was a check for exactly enough to pay tuition and buy books, with a note that read, “I didn’t know you were preparing for ministry. I hope this helps.”

Does God still perform miracles? Indeed! “For your Father knows the things you have need of before you ask Him.” Matthew 6:8 (NKJV)

Many years have passed. Walton and I will soon celebrate our 67th anniversary. We never met health requirements for foreign missions, but God allowed us to serve in pastorates from the Gulf Coast to British Columbia. Through both the good years and the difficult ones, what a great blessing it is to walk with our amazing, all-powerful and loving God, holding one hand, and the boy next door, my beloved Walton, holding the other.

Where have you seen God’s provision in your own life? Spend a moment in prayer thanking the Lord for his faithful care.

Want more devotionals? Our 40-day devotional book written by our Mission:Dignity recipients is available to order here.


Across the Markets

Equities extend April rebound
  • U.S. equities posted a second consecutive week of gains as markets largely looked past Middle East tensions and a more hawkish Federal Reserve meeting.
  • The S&P 500® rose 0.9%, pushing further into record territory.
  • Large‑cap stocks outperformed small caps, while value edged ahead of growth as rising oil prices supported the energy sector.
April delivers strong recovery
  1. April capped a sharp rebound from first‑quarter losses, supported by a powerful, earnings‑driven rally.
  2. The S&P 500® gained 10.4% for the month, its strongest performance since late 2020.
  3. With more than half of companies reported, first‑quarter earnings growth estimates continued to move higher following stronger‑than‑expected results from large technology companies.
Yields rise as Fed stays firm
  • Treasury yields moved higher over the week, led by the front end of the curve.
  • Persistent inflation pressures reinforced the Fed’s holding pattern.
  • The 2‑year yield rose to 3.89%, while the 10‑year ended the week near 4.38%.
Energy prices climb again
  • Oil prices advanced as geopolitical risks continued to cloud global supply conditions.
  • WTI crude ended the week near $105 per barrel, up from $98 the prior week.
  • Industry executives warned that supply could tighten further if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz does not normalize.
Energy and geopolitics remain central risks
  • Middle East developments continued to influence global markets, with shipping disruptions keeping energy‑price uncertainty elevated despite periods of de‑escalation.
European equities steady
  • European stocks finished slightly higher as positive earnings sentiment was offset by continued concerns around elevated energy costs and geopolitical risk.
Global central banks stay cautious
  • Major central banks held policy rates steady while signaling heightened vigilance around inflation risks tied to energy prices.
Currency volatility increases
  • The Japanese yen strengthened sharply following apparent government intervention after breaching key currency levels, underscoring rising sensitivity to global inflation and energy developments.

In the Economy

Fed meeting highlights deep divisions
  • The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%, but the decision featured four dissents, the most since 1992.
  • Policymakers expressed growing tension between persistent inflation pressures and signs of labor‑market softening.
Economic growth rebounds modestly
  • First‑quarter real GDP grew at a 2.0% annualized pace, recovering from a shutdown‑affected fourth quarter.
  • Growth was driven by a surge in business investment, which rose 10.4% at an annual rate amid heavy AI‑related spending.
  • Consumer spending slowed to a 1.6% pace, highlighting emerging pressure on the economy’s primary growth engine.
Inflation accelerates on energy shock
  • Headline PCE inflation rose to 3.5% year over year in March, driven largely by higher gasoline prices.
  • Core PCE (ex. food and energy) increased 0.3% month over month, lifting the annual core rate to 3.2%.
  • The data underscored the challenge energy shocks pose to the Fed’s inflation outlook.

Subscribe to the Weekly Macro Minute

This information is prepared by GuideStone Capital Management, LLC®, a controlled affiliate of GuideStone Financial Resources®. This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Diversification is not a guarantee against loss. This information does not represent any GuideStone® product. Special risks are inherent in international investing, including those related to currency fluctuations and foreign, political and economic events.

The material represented has been obtained from sources we consider reliable, but which we cannot guarantee. It is subject to change without notice and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. This information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice.

All indices are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Index performance assumes no taxes, transaction costs, fees or expenses. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The S&P 500® Index is a market capitalization-weighted equity index composed of approximately 500 U.S. companies representing all major industries. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of its constituents. “Standard & Poor’s®”, “S&P 500®”, “Standard & Poor’s 500” and “500” are trademarks of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. and have been licensed for use by GuideStone.

The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe and is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2,000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The index is completely reconstituted annually to ensure that larger stocks do not distort the performance and characteristics of the actual small-cap opportunity set. Frank Russell Company ("Russell") is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. "Russell®" is a trademark of Frank Russell Company. Neither Russell nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the Russell Indexes and/or Russell ratings and/or underlying data and no party may rely on any Russell Indexes and/or Russell ratings and/or underlying data contained in this communication. No further distribution of Russell Data is permitted without Russell's express written consent. Russell does not promote, sponsor or endorse the content of this communication. Index used with permission. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Index is a benchmark in oil pricing, representing the price of oil extracted in the United States, primarily from Texas and surrounding areas. WTI is widely used in the oil futures market for trading and contract settlements. The Index reflects the spot and futures prices for WTI crude oil as traded on the New York Mercantile Exchanges (NYMEX).

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) as a measure of consumer spending on goods and services among households in the U.S. The PCE is used as a mechanism to gauge how much earned income of households is being spent on current consumption for various goods and services.