Weekly Macro Minute

Michael Dowling authored this issue’s devotional. He served the Lord alongside his wife, Sandra, for more than 15 years.

Throughout my life, thanking God for what he's done has been something I have seen as a general practice among grateful Christians. But thanking God for what He has promised to do, even while going through a hardship, is not something I have often seen or practiced myself.

One night, as I was ministering to people going through hardships, I was troubled. The Lord woke me up and reminded me of Habakkuk 3:16–19, where even during hardship Habakkuk praised God for what He had promised to do. I was convicted about applying these Scriptures to my own circumstances, and it caused me to also praise God for what He had promised to do.

No wonder Habakkuk declared, "I will celebrate in the Lord; I will rejoice in the God of my salvation! The Lord my Lord is my strength; he makes my feet like those of a deer and enables me to walk on mountain heights!" Habakkuk 3:18-19 (CSB)

Which of God’s promises do you need to trust most this week?

Markets hold steady amid rising macro pressures

• U.S. equities were little changed in a volatile week, with the S&P 500^® gaining 0.1% after reaching a new all‑time high before pulling back late in the week.
• Small caps lagged, with the Russell 2000^® falling 2.4% as tighter financial conditions weighed more heavily on smaller companies.

Breadth weakens as leadership narrows

• Market breadth deteriorated as larger, more resilient companies led gains while broader participation declined.
• Energy and select defensive sectors posted gains, while consumer‑oriented and rate‑sensitive areas moved lower.

Energy surge drives sector divergence

• Energy stocks rose sharply as oil prices climbed more than 10% for the week.
• Rising fuel costs weighed on Consumer Discretionary names, reflecting pressure on household spending.

Yields jump on inflation concerns

• Treasury yields rose sharply following stronger‑than‑expected inflation data.
• The 2‑year yield increased to roughly 4.08%, while the 10‑year climbed to 4.59%, its highest level in over a year.
• Markets repriced expectations, with futures now implying a greater likelihood of a rate increase by year‑end.

Global markets under pressure

• International equities generally declined as a stronger U.S. dollar, rising yields and elevated geopolitical risks weighed on sentiment.

Japan benefits from rising yields

• Japanese equities were modestly higher as financial and value‑oriented sectors benefited from rising domestic yields.

China softens after trade disappointment

• Chinese equities moved lower as the Trump–Xi summit concluded without meaningful progress, dampening investor sentiment.

Europe shows uneven momentum

• European equities declined as higher energy costs and persistent industrial weakness weighed on growth expectations.

Inflation data surprises to the upside

• April CPI rose 0.6% month over month, lifting the annual rate to 3.8%, slightly above expectations.
• Core CPI (ex. food and energy) increased 0.4% on the month and 2.8% year over year, signaling early signs of broader price pressure from energy costs.

Producer prices accelerate sharply

• April PPI jumped 1.4% month over month and 6.0% year over year, driven in part by a surge in energy prices.
• The data marked the largest monthly increase since early 2022.

Consumer spending holds up

• Retail sales rose 0.5% in April, reflecting continued consumer resilience despite higher prices.

Leadership transition at the Fed

• Kevin Warsh was confirmed as Federal Reserve Chairman, facing a complex backdrop of rising inflation and slowing growth.