Weekly Macro Minute

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GuideStone Capital Management Weekly Macro Minute

GuideStone® was originally established in 1918 to provide financial support and assistance for retired pastors and widows. Today, we continue to carry out that mission through the ministry of Mission:Dignity®. Here’s an encouraging devotional from one of our recipients:

Icon of a Bible
Icon of a BibleLord, Plant My Feet on Higher Ground

Philippians 1:6 (NKJV)

Sam Parsons authored this issue’s devotional. He served the Lord in ministry for 48 years.

As we read God’s Word, it is amazing to find many occasions where man has hesitated or just plain stopped short of letting God place them on a higher plane of life. We give up in fear or reluctant faith, keeping us in the wilderness of sin. God has redeemed us and challenged all who believe him to go onward and to a higher place when tests come. We all struggle with anxiety, failures of the past, and fear over the future. Doubt pervades our souls. But, as the late great songwriter Andre Crouch wrote, “Through it all … I’ve learned to trust in Jesus … to depend upon His Word!” In Philippians 1:6 (NKJV), Paul wrote, “Being confident of this very thing, that He who has begun a good work in you will complete it until the day of Jesus Christ.” We are called to follow him no matter what or our age.

In the Old Testament, we find Caleb, a young man chosen by Moses to spy on the land of Canaan and see if the people living there were strong or weak. God had called them to cross the Jordan River to possess Canaan as their inheritance. With the bad report of 10 spies, Israel refused, and all died in the wilderness except those under the age of 40.

Caleb and his friend Joshua, the only two spies who brought a good report to Moses, crossed the Jordan into Canaan with the new generation 40 years later. Even in his eighties, Caleb was still focused on possessing what God had promised him and the people of Israel. He obeyed the Lord and brought down the giants of Anak, whom Israel greatly feared.

We are never too old to achieve God’s calling upon our life. Caleb didn’t want his children to live in the valley of defeat. God intends for us to live, as Caleb, on the mountain of victory overlooking the plains of defeat and death. In the valley, Israel was looking back longingly to Egypt and its way of frivolity and sin, as was Lot, his wife and family upon Sodom and Gomorrah. God has designed everything we encounter to improve us and give us more grace to move toward perfection. He doesn’t want us to live in defeat, disease or death. He plans to lead us to the place of victory as we believe and follow him.

What mountain is the Lord calling you to climb today?

Want more devotionals? Our 40-day devotional book written by our Mission:Dignity recipients is available to order here.

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Across the Markets

Equities extend rally on earnings and inflation relief
  • S&P 500® rose 1.9% and Russell 2000® outperformed with a 2.5% gain.
  • Strong earnings and softer inflation boosted Federal Reserve rate cut expectations.
Treasury yields flatten modestly
  • 2-year yield rose two basis points to 3.48%; 10-year yield slipped one basis point to 3.99%.
  • Curve flattened as short-term rates edged higher.
Gold rally pauses after nine-week streak
  • Gold fell 3.3% to $4,114/oz, down from record highs.
  • Technical indicators signaled overbought conditions.
Oil rebounds on geopolitical tensions
  • WTI crude rose 6.0% to $61.78/barrel after U.S. sanctions on Russian producers.
  • Despite gains, oil remains down 11.5% year-to-date.
UK inflation steady, retail sales beat expectations
  • Headline inflation held at 3.8%; core eased to 3.5%.
  • Retail sales rose 0.5%, fourth straight monthly increase.
Eurozone business activity hits 17-month high
  • Both services and manufacturing showed gains.
Japan rallies on leadership change
  • Markets rose as new PM Takaichi is expected to pursue accommodative policies.
China gains on tech strength despite soft data
  • Q3 GDP grew 4.8% year-over-year; retail sales and investment data showed weak domestic demand.

In the Economy

Inflation eases slightly in September
  • Headline and core (ex. food and energy) Consumer Price Index both rose 3.0% year-over-year, below expectations.
  • Softer inflation reinforced expectations for Fed rate cuts in November and December.
Consumer sentiment weakens again
  • Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 53.6, its third straight monthly decline.
  • Inflation and labor market concerns weighed on the outlook.

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This information is prepared by GuideStone Capital Management, LLC®, a controlled affiliate of GuideStone Financial Resources®. This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Diversification is not a guarantee against loss. This information does not represent any GuideStone® product. Special risks are inherent in international investing, including those related to currency fluctuations and foreign, political and economic events.

The material represented has been obtained from sources we consider reliable, but which we cannot guarantee. It is subject to change without notice and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. This information discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions and should not be construed as research or investment advice.

All indices are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Index performance assumes no taxes, transaction costs, fees or expenses. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The S&P 500® Index is a market capitalization-weighted equity index composed of approximately 500 U.S. companies representing all major industries. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of its constituents. “Standard & Poor’s®”, “S&P 500®”, “Standard & Poor’s 500” and “500” are trademarks of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. and have been licensed for use by GuideStone.

The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe and is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2,000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The index is completely reconstituted annually to ensure that larger stocks do not distort the performance and characteristics of the actual small-cap opportunity set. Frank Russell Company ("Russell") is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. "Russell®" is a trademark of Frank Russell Company. Neither Russell nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the Russell Indexes and/or Russell ratings and/or underlying data and no party may rely on any Russell Indexes and/or Russell ratings and/or underlying data contained in this communication. No further distribution of Russell Data is permitted without Russell's express written consent. Russell does not promote, sponsor or endorse the content of this communication. Index used with permission. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Index is a benchmark in oil pricing, representing the price of oil extracted in the United States, primarily from Texas and surrounding areas. WTI is widely used in the oil futures market for trading and contract settlements. The Index reflects the spot and futures prices for WTI crude oil as traded on the New York Mercantile Exchanges (NYMEX).

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) as a measure of the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The BLS calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) measures consumer attitudes about the economy, personal finances, and business conditions. The Index is a monthly survey that provides insights into how consumers expect the economy to change in the future.