Weekly Macro Minute

Craig Chambers authored this issue’s devotional. He served the Lord alongside his wife, Virginia, for 32 years.

The Lord is my shepherd; 
there is nothing I lack.
He lets me lie down in green pastures;
He leads me beside quiet waters.
He renews my life;
He leads me along the right paths
for his name’s sake.
Even when I go through the darkest valley,
I fear no danger,
for you are with me;
Your rod and your staff — they comfort me.
You prepare a table before me
in the presence of my enemies;
You anoint my head with oil;
my cup overflows.
Only goodness and faithful love will pursue me
all the days of my life,
and I will dwell in the house of the Lord
as long as I live.

Psalm 23:1-6 (HCSB)

David paints such a beautiful picture of God’s amazing love and care for his children. The riches in this psalm are inexhaustible. Martin Luther described it as “a little Bible.”

The journey we find ourselves on in this psalm is long, unknown, and honestly, a little scary; therefore, we need a shepherd. It is a dangerous journey, so we need a companion. It is wearisome, so we need a host.

But the journey has always had an ultimate destination: restoration and return to the house of the Lord. Jesus has come to seek and save those who are lost. This is the story of the Bible. The Gospel is that God so loved the world that he sent his son to shepherd his sheep and even more to call the lost and wandering sheep to come and enjoy the fellowship, protection and leadership he so graciously provides.

If you are part of the flock, all these amazing riches are yours; if not, they could be yours if you simply repent and ask Jesus into your heart.

What an amazing journey it is! Who will you tell of this journey today?

Want more devotionals? Our 40-day devotional book written by our Mission:Dignity recipients is available to order here.

Across the Markets

Major equity indexes rose for the week, but the market remained highly volatile. The S&P 500^® Index nearly reached bear-market levels early in the week before surging on Wednesday as President Trump announced a pause on certain tariffs. The S&P 500^® was up 5.7% for the whole week, and the small-cap Russell 2000^® Index was up 1.8%, lagging their large-cap counterparts.

Treasuries sold off, sending longer-dated yields toward the biggest weekly surge since the 1980s. The 30-year treasury yield was up 42 basis points, and the benchmark 10-year yield was up 46 basis points. The rout threatens to put additional pressure on the economy by broadly pushing up borrowing costs and casting doubt about Treasuries’ status as the world’s safe haven.

U.S. high-yield bond and leveraged loan funds saw their largest outflows on record, marking a significant shift in demand trends. So far this month, the spreads in the high-yield sector are 74 basis points wider.

Gold prices increased for the fifth time in six weeks, reaching over $3,200 per ounce for the first time. By Friday afternoon, gold was trading at $3,250, up 7% for the week and 22% year to date. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar slipped to its lowest level since April 2022 as its effectiveness in a flight-to-quality scenario is questioned.

Several European Central Bank policymakers indicated a higher likelihood of additional interest rate cuts in April due to concerns about growth following tariff announcements. European government bond yields performed better than U.S. Treasuries, with yields decreasing in some regions. Additionally, preliminary estimates showed that the euro area grew by 0.3% in February, slightly below the expected 0.5%.

On Friday, China announced an increase in tariffs on U.S. goods to 125%, effective April 12, up from the previous rate of 84%. This decision follows the Trump administration’s clarification that total tariffs on China have reached 145%. Beijing referred to the latest U.S. increase as inconsequential and indicated it would refrain from further increases at this time.

In the Economy

Economic data releases were less prominent this week as trade policy again took center stage. The U.S. officially started the clock on import tariffs from nearly all its trading partners, leading to significant changes in global financial markets. President Trump declared a 90-day pause on many reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2, notably excluding China, where escalations have resulted in a 145% tariff on Chinese imports. The pause still leaves the United States in a materially higher tariff environment than at any time in the past century, as a baseline 10% tariff remains in place with trading partners, and tensions with China remain high. Late Friday afternoon, the administration announced an exemption for smartphones, computers, and other electronics from its reciprocal tariffs, representing a major reprieve for global technology companies.

Preliminary U.S. consumer sentiment for April reported on Friday fell sharply to 50.8, one of the lowest readings since the 1970s, driven by rising inflation expectations amid tariff concerns. This was 6.2 points lower than economists predicted, only slightly above the June 2022 record low of 50. Results were based on interviews conducted from March 25 through April 8, before President Trump announced a 90-day pause on higher tariffs for multiple U.S. trading partners.

The March Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped 0.1% month-over-month, the first decline since May 2020, driven by lower gasoline and used car prices. This brought the annual rate to 2.4%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 2.8% year-over-year, the lowest since March 2021. This could indicate softening demand amid recession fears, although recent tariff effects may not be fully captured.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noted tariffs are “larger than expected,” predicting higher inflation and slower growth. The Fed’s March meeting minutes revealed near-unanimous concern about stagflation risks, with no rate cuts planned soon. Markets now expect the next cut in June with approximately 75% certainty, and three cuts are projected for 2025.