Weekly Macro Minute

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GuideStone Capital Management Weekly Macro Minute

GuideStone® was originally established in 1918 to provide financial support and assistance for retired pastors and widows. Today, we continue to carry out that mission through the ministry of Mission:Dignity®. Here’s an encouraging devotional from one of our recipients:

Icon of a Bible
Icon of a BibleRelying On God's Power

Exodus 14:13-14 (NIV)

Colbert Gilles authored this issue’s devotional. He served the Lord alongside his wife, Marie, for 15 years.

After crossing the Red Sea by the mighty hand of the Lord, the Israelite people looked back and saw the Egyptian chariots and Pharaoh’s horsemen behind them. They were terrified; they cried out and complained to Moses. They had quickly forgotten the work of their great God. Then Moses, a great leader inspired by the Lord of the Armies, answered them, “Do not be afraid. Stand still, and see the salvation of the Lord, which He will accomplish for you today. For the Egyptians whom you see today, you shall see again no more forever.” Exodus 14:13-14 (NKJV)

Let us analyze the main idea of Moses’ answer in three points:

  1. Do Not Be Afraid.
  2. This expression from Exodus 14:13 is repeated on several occasions in the Bible. In Deuteronomy 3:22 (NKJV), we read, “You must not fear them, for the Lord your God Himself fights for you.” In Deuteronomy 31:6 (NKJV), we further read this passage: “Be strong and of good courage, do not fear nor be afraid of them; for the Lord your God, He is the One who goes with you. He will not leave you nor forsake you.” Finally, in Isaiah 41:10 (NKJV), the Lord tells his people through the prophet: “Fear not, for I am with you; Be not dismayed, for I am your God. I will strengthen you, yes, I will help you, I will uphold you with my righteous right hand.” The Lord walked with the Israelite people. He was in front and behind them. Moses knew that. He was confident in the Lord and strongly encouraged the people not to be frightened.

  3. Stand Firm.
  4. Moses, a courageous leader, knew that God had secured his people. He advised them to take their stand and be firm and confident. He knew fear leads to a loss of confidence, self-control, direction, and proper guidance. Moses asked them to be undismayed.

    We can become dismayed when difficulties occur in our lives. We sometimes lose confidence in the power of God to solve our problems. As we face overwhelming world conflicts, we may grow pessimistic. Nevertheless, Jesus reminds us to believe in his Word. Stand firm when sickness comes! Stand firm when disorder arrives! Stand still when tremendous thunderstorms shake us! Be still because God is our refuge!

  5. See the Salvation of the Lord Today.

Moses instructed the people of Israel not to fear and to stand firm, assuring them they would witness the Lord’s deliverance. After these words, he explained to the people what the Lord’s salvation would look like in this situation: the Egyptian chariots would be blocked, the horsemen would be destroyed, and the Israelites would not see them ever again. Moses’s words spell out God’s final victory over Egypt, the freedom of the Israelite people.

Therefore, when facing any situation, as complicated as it might be, we must rely on the mighty hand of God. Jahaziel, the son of Zechariah, inspired by God’s Spirit, addressed King Jehoshaphat in these terms: “Do not be afraid nor dismayed because of this great multitude, for the battle is not yours, but God’s” 2 Chronicles 20:15 (NKJV). When we trust God, barricades will lift, and closed gates will open for us.

In closing, let us read the Apostle Paul’s exhortation in Philippians 4:6-7 (NKJV): “Be anxious for nothing, but in everything by prayer and supplication, with thanksgiving, let your requests be made known to God; and the peace of God, which surpasses all understanding, will guard your hearts and minds through Christ Jesus.

How can you stand firm and see the salvation of the Lord today?

Want more devotionals? Our 40-day devotional book written by our Mission:Dignity recipients is available to order here.


Across the Markets

U.S. equities posted modest gains for the week, with the S&P 500® edging up 0.5%, snapping a four-week losing streak. Market sentiment appeared to stabilize as the Trump administration took a more coordinated approach in communicating its tariff plans, contrasting with the erratic messaging of previous weeks. Generally positive economic data further supported investor confidence. Small-cap stocks also participated in the rally, with the Russell 2000® Index rising 0.6% for the week.

Treasury yields fell modestly for the week, with the 2-year and 10-year yields declining by seven basis points to 3.95% and 4.25%, respectively. U.S. investment-grade fixed income has performed well year-to-date, with the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index delivering a total return of 2.6%, including a 0.5% gain for the week.

Global central banks highlighted trade-related uncertainty in their latest policy statements, balancing growth headwinds against inflation risks. The Bank of England held rates at 4.5%, signaling a more hawkish stance amid persistent inflation concerns. Sweden’s Riksbank also kept its rate steady at 2.25%, with expectations of no changes through early 2028, signaling the end of its easing cycle. In contrast, the Swiss National Bank cut its rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 0.25%, citing low inflation pressures and increased downside risks while signaling that further cuts are unlikely. As expected, the Bank of Japan kept its short-term policy rate on hold at 0.5%.

In Europe, expectations of increased government spending boosted investor sentiment and lifted equities across the region.

Japanese stock markets rose for the week, supported by investors looking to diversify their U.S.-heavy equity allocations more broadly across global markets.

In the Economy

Retail sales posted a modest increase in February, rising 0.2% compared to the previous month, below economists’ forecast of a 0.6% gain. The weaker-than-expected growth was primarily driven by a 0.4% decline in sales at automobile and auto parts dealers. The slowdown in consumer spending suggests that the economy may be cooling from the strong pace of growth seen in 2024.

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday for the second straight meeting and maintained its forecast for two rate cuts later this year. However, the central bank adjusted its outlook for 2025, projecting higher inflation and slower economic growth amid rising uncertainty. Policymakers now anticipate core inflation to reach 2.8% by the end of 2025, up from the previous forecast of 2.5%. Economic growth is expected to slow to an annual rate of 1.7%, down from 2.1%, while the unemployment rate is now projected to rise slightly to 4.4%, compared to the earlier estimate of 4.3%.

Existing home sales unexpectedly increased in February as increased inventory drew buyers back into the market. According to the National Association of Realtors, sales rose 4.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.26 million units, surpassing economists’ expectations for an annual rate of 3.95 million.

Initial jobless claims increased by 2,000 to 223,000 for the week ending March 15, in line with the median forecast from a Bloomberg® survey of economists. Continuing claims, which reflect the number of individuals still receiving unemployment benefits, rose to 1.89 million, which was also in line with expectations. Layoffs remain near historically low levels, indicating that the labor market remains healthy.

 

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This information is prepared by GuideStone Capital Management, LLC®, a controlled affiliate of GuideStone Financial Resources®. This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities. Diversification is not a guarantee against loss. This information does not represent any GuideStone® product. Special risks are inherent in international investing, including those related to currency fluctuations and foreign, political and economic events.

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The S&P 500® Index is a market capitalization-weighted equity index composed of approximately 500 U.S. companies representing all major industries. The index is designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of its constituents. “Standard & Poor’s®”, “S&P 500®”, “Standard & Poor’s 500” and “500” are trademarks of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. and have been licensed for use by GuideStone.

The Russell 2000® Index measures the performance of the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe and is a subset of the Russell 3000 Index, representing approximately 10% of the total market capitalization of that index. It includes approximately 2,000 of the smallest securities based on a combination of their market cap and current index membership. The index is completely reconstituted annually to ensure that larger stocks do not distort the performance and characteristics of the actual small-cap opportunity set. Frank Russell Company ("Russell") is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks and copyrights related to the Russell Indexes. "Russell®" is a trademark of Frank Russell Company. Neither Russell nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the Russell Indexes and/or Russell ratings and/or underlying data and no party may rely on any Russell Indexes and/or Russell ratings and/or underlying data contained in this communication. No further distribution of Russell Data is permitted without Russell's express written consent. Russell does not promote, sponsor or endorse the content of this communication. Index used with permission. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.